Expected daily cases by country
Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated cases with a date of infection on the 2020-03-22) can be summarised by whether cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively. Countries are only included if at least 100 cases have been reported on a single day. Countries with fewer than 100 cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey).
Summary of latest reproduction number and case count estimates by date of infection
Figure 1: Cases with date of infection on the 2020-03-22 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.
Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most incident cases
Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-22. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.
Reported cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most incident cases
Figure 3: Cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-22. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.
Reproduction numbers over time in all regions
Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-22. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.
Reported cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions
Figure 5: Cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-22. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.
Latest estimates (as of the 2020-03-22)
Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-03-22) of the number of cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.| Country/Region | New infections | Expected change in daily cases | Effective reproduction no. | Doubling time (days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria | 85 (21 – 152) | Likely increasing | 1.6 (0.8 – 2.3) | 8.7 (3.3 – Cases decreasing) |
| Argentina | 131 (43 – 203) | Likely increasing | 1.4 (0.9 – 1.9) | 11 (4.3 – Cases decreasing) |
| Australia | 429 (246 – 635) | Unsure | 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) | 46 (9.3 – Cases decreasing) |
| Austria | 833 (445 – 1209) | Unsure | 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) | 43 (8.3 – Cases decreasing) |
| Belgium | 1789 (931 – 2672) | Increasing | 1.6 (1 – 2.2) | 6.9 (3.6 – 55) |
| Brazil | 538 (253 – 811) | Likely increasing | 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) | 15 (5.4 – Cases decreasing) |
| Canada | 1037 (546 – 1530) | Increasing | 1.4 (1 – 1.9) | 8.4 (4.3 – 430) |
| Chile | 363 (166 – 568) | Likely increasing | 1.5 (0.9 – 2.1) | 8.1 (3.8 – Cases decreasing) |
| China | 110 (62 – 151) | Unsure | 1.1 (0.8 – 1.5) | 37 (8.6 – Cases decreasing) |
| Czech Republic | 307 (137 – 454) | Likely increasing | 1.3 (0.8 – 1.7) | 13 (4.6 – Cases decreasing) |
| Denmark | 224 (98 – 331) | Likely increasing | 1.4 (0.9 – 2) | 9.1 (4.2 – Cases decreasing) |
| Dominican Republic | 168 (32 – 285) | Likely increasing | 1.6 (0.7 – 2.4) | 8.6 (3.3 – Cases decreasing) |
| Ecuador | 178 (76 – 272) | Unsure | 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) | 1300 (8.3 – Cases decreasing) |
| Estonia | 68 (22 – 104) | Likely increasing | 1.4 (0.7 – 1.9) | 10 (3.6 – Cases decreasing) |
| Finland | 120 (21 – 197) | Unsure | 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) | 26 (5.3 – Cases decreasing) |
| France | 4644 (2593 – 6943) | Likely increasing | 1.3 (1 – 1.8) | 13 (5.7 – Cases decreasing) |
| Germany | 5764 (3253 – 8030) | Likely increasing | 1.2 (0.9 – 1.6) | 18 (6.7 – Cases decreasing) |
| Greece | 104 (44 – 163) | Likely increasing | 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) | 16 (5.3 – Cases decreasing) |
| India | 167 (82 – 270) | Likely increasing | 1.5 (0.9 – 2) | 9.8 (4.4 – Cases decreasing) |
| Indonesia | 183 (69 – 288) | Likely increasing | 1.4 (0.8 – 2) | 12 (4.3 – Cases decreasing) |
| Iran | 3556 (1759 – 5118) | Likely increasing | 1.4 (0.9 – 1.9) | 9 (4.5 – Cases decreasing) |
| Ireland | 353 (138 – 517) | Likely increasing | 1.4 (0.9 – 1.8) | 12 (4.8 – Cases decreasing) |
| Israel | 567 (208 – 826) | Likely increasing | 1.3 (0.8 – 1.9) | 13 (4.9 – Cases decreasing) |
| Italy | 6295 (3549 – 9060) | Unsure | 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) | 65 (9.3 – Cases decreasing) |
| Japan | 164 (87 – 230) | Increasing | 1.5 (1 – 2) | 7.6 (4.1 – 57) |
| Luxembourg | 177 (46 – 286) | Unsure | 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) | 1400 (6.7 – Cases decreasing) |
| Malaysia | 187 (103 – 268) | Unsure | 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) | 42 (8.5 – Cases decreasing) |
| Mexico | 180 (68 – 283) | Increasing | 1.6 (0.9 – 2.3) | 6.8 (3.3 – Cases decreasing) |
| Morocco | 108 (24 – 180) | Increasing | 1.8 (1 – 2.6) | 6 (2.8 – Cases decreasing) |
| Netherlands | 1340 (699 – 1930) | Likely increasing | 1.4 (0.9 – 1.8) | 11 (5 – Cases decreasing) |
| Norway | 313 (156 – 479) | Unsure | 1.2 (0.7 – 1.5) | 28 (6.4 – Cases decreasing) |
| Pakistan | 167 (52 – 301) | Unsure | 1.3 (0.7 – 1.9) | 19 (4.7 – Cases decreasing) |
| Panama | 149 (47 – 237) | Likely increasing | 1.4 (0.8 – 1.9) | 11 (4.1 – Cases decreasing) |
| Peru | 138 (35 – 231) | Likely increasing | 1.6 (0.7 – 2.3) | 7.7 (3.2 – Cases decreasing) |
| Philippines | 496 (125 – 835) | Increasing | 2.1 (0.9 – 3.3) | 4.2 (2.2 – 42) |
| Poland | 282 (116 – 439) | Likely increasing | 1.5 (0.9 – 2.1) | 9 (4.1 – Cases decreasing) |
| Portugal | 904 (390 – 1385) | Likely increasing | 1.4 (0.9 – 2) | 9.2 (4.2 – Cases decreasing) |
| Qatar | 55 (16 – 96) | Likely increasing | 1.9 (0.8 – 2.9) | 5.3 (2.6 – Cases decreasing) |
| Romania | 301 (132 – 465) | Likely increasing | 1.6 (1 – 2.2) | 7.8 (3.8 – Cases decreasing) |
| Russia | 356 (128 – 557) | Increasing | 1.8 (0.9 – 2.6) | 5.6 (2.9 – 81) |
| Saudi Arabia | 160 (49 – 265) | Unsure | 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) | 29 (5.9 – Cases decreasing) |
| Serbia | 166 (44 – 281) | Likely increasing | 2 (0.8 – 3.1) | 4.8 (2.3 – Cases decreasing) |
| Singapore | 84 (30 – 124) | Likely increasing | 1.4 (0.9 – 1.9) | 10 (4.3 – Cases decreasing) |
| South Africa | 132 (54 – 216) | Unsure | 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) | 55 (5.2 – Cases decreasing) |
| South Korea | 126 (66 – 181) | Unsure | 1.1 (0.8 – 1.5) | 26 (7.4 – Cases decreasing) |
| Spain | 8770 (5252 – 12784) | Likely increasing | 1.2 (0.9 – 1.6) | 16 (6 – Cases decreasing) |
| Sweden | 389 (192 – 594) | Likely increasing | 1.4 (0.9 – 1.9) | 10 (4.5 – Cases decreasing) |
| Switzerland | 1448 (749 – 2188) | Likely increasing | 1.3 (0.8 – 1.7) | 19 (6.4 – Cases decreasing) |
| Thailand | 182 (64 – 286) | Likely increasing | 1.3 (0.8 – 1.9) | 21 (5.2 – Cases decreasing) |
| Turkey | 3068 (780 – 4827) | Likely increasing | 2.1 (0.9 – 3.1) | 4.3 (2.2 – 45) |
| Ukraine | 135 (25 – 228) | Likely increasing | 2.2 (0.7 – 3.5) | 4.3 (2.2 – Cases decreasing) |
| United Arab Emirates | 91 (22 – 162) | Likely increasing | 1.6 (0.9 – 2.2) | 8.1 (3.1 – Cases decreasing) |
| United Kingdom | 3137 (1707 – 4526) | Increasing | 1.5 (1 – 2.1) | 7.7 (4 – 54) |
| United States of America | 22748 (13251 – 32240) | Increasing | 1.4 (1 – 1.8) | 9.2 (4.8 – 100) |